EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CMB Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 58.3% | 51.2% | 56.2% | 53.2% | 1463 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 3.7% | 12 | 70.8% | 56.9% | 56.1% | 52.5% | 1357 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.9% | 7 | 71.4% | 65.3% | 55.3% | 56.0% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 58.3% | 44.3% | 54.0% | 48.7% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 3 | 5.6% | 18 | 52.8% | 51.9% | 53.2% | 50.9% | 1316 | — |
| 6 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 34.9% | 53.0% | 48.8% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 8 | 14.8% | 34 | 57.4% | 56.7% | 53.0% | 53.6% | 1310 | — |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 3.7% | 12 | 62.5% | 56.4% | 52.8% | 52.9% | 1318 | — |
| 9 | Water Allies | 2 | 3.7% | 12 | 66.7% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 48.1% | 1417 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 49.3% | 51.8% | 52.0% | 1333 | — |
| 11 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 7.4% | 24 | 52.1% | 47.9% | 51.7% | 50.0% | 1282 | — |
| 12 | Water Genbu | 4 | 7.4% | 14 | 53.6% | 50.5% | 51.6% | 50.0% | 1311 | — |
| 13 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 5.6% | 18 | 52.8% | 57.7% | 51.0% | 52.5% | 1204 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 50.0% | 55.7% | 50.0% | 52.6% | 1164 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 58.3% | 49.7% | 50.0% | 47.6% | 1552 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 5.6% | 16 | 59.4% | 58.2% | 48.9% | 50.0% | 1387 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 41.7% | 55.2% | 47.3% | 51.7% | 1073 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 3.7% | 12 | 41.7% | 46.9% | 46.5% | 47.8% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Silvie | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 40.0% | 43.8% | 44.6% | 44.8% | 1075 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Fractal | 6 | 11.1% | 34 | 44.1% | 47.3% | 44.5% | 45.9% | 1233 | — |
| 21 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 3.7% | 9 | 33.3% | 47.7% | 42.1% | 46.7% | 1233 | — |
| 22 | Fire Luxem Zander | 1 | 1.9% | 7 | 14.3% | 34.2% | 41.6% | 44.6% | 937 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Water Zander | 1 | 1.9% | 7 | 42.9% | 49.1% | 41.6% | 45.3% | 1210 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Water Diana | 1 | 1.9% | 5 | 20.0% | 37.0% | 41.2% | 43.2% | 1153 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 8.3% | 30.4% | 40.8% | 43.3% | 1044 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Slimes | 1 | 1.9% | 6 | 16.7% | 36.4% | 38.6% | 41.7% | 1062 | ↓ low |