← Wilczek - Abyssal Heaven - Regionals
Fire PolkhawkTier 2
at Wilczek - Abyssal Heaven - Regionals
decks
1
(2.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.8%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1045
· median 1045
· range 1045–1045
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1168
Q3 1347
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Water Genbu | 13.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.4 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Polkhawk decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
