← Wilczek - Abyssal Heaven - Regionals
Wind AlliesTier 2
at Wilczek - Abyssal Heaven - Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Water Genbu | 13.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 32.1% | -11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 66 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 66 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanguard's Reversal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Squallbind Pounce | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Attack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Charged Manaplate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shangxiang, Fierce Princess | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Worn Gearblade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Into the Fray | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gearshift Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rescue the Heir | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deployment Beacon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Recruitment Officer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| City Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Shield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Novice Mechanist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Jian, Wolvesbane | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reckless Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cyclonic Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ma Chao, Lupine Huntress | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |