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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.7% | +5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 66.0% | +10.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 67.9% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Silvie | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.2% | +19.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Revitalizing Cleanse, Primordial Ritual, Mystic Purifier. Losers more often ran: Strategem of Myriad Ice, Nullifying Mirror, Grand Crusader's Ring.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Frostbind | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Buried Grief | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Convalescing Mare | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 |