← Wilczek - Abyssal Heaven - Regionals
Water FractalTier 2
at Wilczek - Abyssal Heaven - Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 13.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.3% | -5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 31.3% | -18.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Fire Silvie | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 2.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 3 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 43 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Captivating Opulence | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fracturize | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Art of War | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enthralling Visage | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Halt | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Redirect Flow | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kaleidoscope Barrette | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eventide Lure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostnip Pirouette | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Protective Fractal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Idyll Corsage | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostlorn Caress | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Season's End | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |