Fire AggroTier 1
at CakeTCG HVN Online Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.8% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 50.9% | +0.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.5% | +3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Hidden | 4.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.6% | -3.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.2% | +6.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card-quantity differences observed in the mirrors — every mirror used an identical decklist.