Water Crux MageTier 2
at CakeTCG HVN Online Regional
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.4%
avg ELO -4.6 per match
expected value
39.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1313
· median 1313
· range 1313–1313
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1280
Q3 1472
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.0% | -8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.1% | -6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Hidden | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
