Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at CakeTCG HVN Online Regional
decks
5
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
28
9-13-6
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.5%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1336
· median 1333
· range 1278–1436
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1280
Q3 1472
1652
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 46.8% | -2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 44.5% | -3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.8% | +3.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.5% | +3.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Hidden | 4.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.5% | -8.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
