← CakeTCG HVN Online Regional

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at CakeTCG HVN Online Regional

decks
4 (8.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21 7-9-5
overall winrate
45.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1% avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
46.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1316 · median 1286 · range 1202–1490 (4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094 Q1 1280 Q3 1472 1652
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 50% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 17.8% 5 1-2-2 40.0% 44.4% 46.0% -2.3
Fire Aggro 11.1% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 42.8% -6.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 11.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.3% -7.6
Water Ravishing Mill 6.7% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.1% +3.4
Wind Astra Cleric 6.7% 0
Wind Luxem Zander 6.7% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.1% -0.7
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.3% +11.7
Fire Crux Mage 4.4% 0
Hidden 4.4% 0
Water Genbu 4.4% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.3% +0.3
Fire Slimes 2.2% 0
Fire Suzaku 2.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 42.5% -7.2
Water Crux Mage 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 54.5% +7.2
Wind Allies 2.2% 0
Wind Arcane 2.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.2% +1.9
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.1% +0.1
Wind Seiryuu 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.6% +8.9
Decklists · 4 from this event

The 4 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Reclaim +1.00 1 0 0
Aesan Protector +1.00 1 0 0
Shimmercloak Assassin -1.00 0 1 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Scout the Land -1.00 0 1 0
Sable Remnant -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Slimeshield -1.00 0 1 0
Slice and Dice -1.00 0 1 0
Imperial Spy -1.00 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -1.00 0 1 0
Backup Charger +1.00 1 0 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Windmill Engineer +1.00 1 0 0
Nullifying Lantern -1.00 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Shadowstrike +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Blinding Orb +1.00 1 0 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester +1.00 1 0 0
Quicksilver Grail +1.00 1 0 0
Mastermind Scheme +1.00 1 0 0
Shadow's Claw +1.00 1 0 0
Zephyr -1.00 0 1 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Disenchant -1.00 0 1 0
Sirocco Operative -1.00 0 1 0
Annul Spell -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility +1.00 1 0 0
Portentous Tanggu -1.00 0 1 0
Penumbral Waltz +1.00 1 0 0
Blackmarket Broker -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/24206/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike