Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at CakeTCG HVN Online Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 17.8% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.0% | -2.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 6.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hidden | 4.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slimeshield | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |