Fire Luxem AssassinTier 1
at Düsseldorf Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.0% | -2.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.4% | -15.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.7% | +2.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.1% | -10.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Zander | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Striking Illuminance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |