Water NeosTier 3
at Düsseldorf Regionals
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.9%
avg ELO -8.4 per match
expected value
38.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1188
· median 1188
· range 1188–1188
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1222
Q3 1409
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Genbu | 9.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.4 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
