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Wind AlliesTier 2

at Düsseldorf Regionals

decks
5 (9.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27 11-16-0
overall winrate
40.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5% avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
47.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1298 · median 1320 · range 1130–1474 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094 Q1 1222 Q3 1409 1584
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Fractal 18.5% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.7% +0.5
Wind Shadowstrike 13.0% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 52.5% +1.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 9.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.6% -15.0
Water Genbu 9.3% 5 3-2-0 60.0% 55.6% 63.9% +8.0
Wind Astra Cleric 5.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.1% -15.2
Wind Seiryuu 5.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 38.2% -11.4
Fire Aggro 3.7% 0
Fire Exia 3.7% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 3.7% 0
Water Allies 3.7% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 42.3% -7.4
Wind Exia 3.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.8% +0.8
Fire Kongming 1.9% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 52.5% +1.9
Fire Ravishing Mill 1.9% 0
Fire Slimes 1.9% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.9% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 1.9% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.7% -8.6
Water Neos 1.9% 0
Water Umbra Diana 1.9% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.3% +1.2
Water Zander 1.9% 0
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Huaji of Heaven's Rise +1.00 1 0 0
Dilu, Auspicious Charger -1.00 0 1 0
Reclaim -1.00 0 1 0
Esteemed Knight +1.00 1 0 0
Perse, Relentless Raptor -1.00 0 1 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon +1.00 1 0 0
Captain Archer -1.00 0 1 0
Concealed Marksman -1.00 0 1 0
Seeker's Rifle -1.00 0 1 0
Shimmercloak Assassin +1.00 1 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Lurking Assailant +1.00 1 0 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +1.00 1 0 0
Veiling Breeze +1.00 1 0 0
Squallbind Pounce -1.00 0 1 0
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper -1.00 0 1 0
Stifling Trap +1.00 1 0 0
Mystic Purifier +1.00 1 0 0
Shangxiang, Fierce Princess +1.00 1 0 0
Tempest Downfall +1.00 1 0 0
Blastshot Pump -1.00 0 1 0
Diana, Keen Huntress -1.00 0 1 0
Yunzhou Cavalry -1.00 0 1 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +1.00 1 0 0
Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster +1.00 1 0 0
Smoke Bombs -1.00 0 1 0
Windmill Engineer -1.00 0 1 0
Second Wind +1.00 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble +1.00 1 0 0
Eternal Magistrate +1.00 1 0 0
Ornamental Greatsword +1.00 1 0 0
Diana, Deadly Duelist -1.00 0 1 0
Veiled Dash -1.00 0 1 0
Morgan, Soul Guide -1.00 0 1 0
Fairy Whispers +1.00 1 0 0
Charged Hunter -1.00 0 1 0
Tariff Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior +1.00 1 0 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 1 0 0
Winbless Rangefinder -1.00 0 1 0
Windpiercer -1.00 0 1 0
Skirting Step -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/24232/archetypes/Wind Allies