Water AlliesTier 2
at Düsseldorf Regionals
decks
2
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.9%
avg ELO -5.6 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1444
· median 1444
· range 1354–1535
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1222
Q3 1409
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 33.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.4 |
| Wind Allies | 9.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.5% | -19.7 |
| Wind Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
