EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 5/24 Fayble Online Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 7 | 18.9% | 29 | 65.5% | 56.3% | 57.7% | 53.6% | 1406 | — |
| 2 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 52.1% | 54.1% | 51.0% | 1435 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 66.7% | 53.5% | 52.2% | 50.9% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 45.9% | 51.7% | 50.0% | 1317 | — |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 46.6% | 51.6% | 49.1% | 1498 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 6 | 16.2% | 26 | 59.6% | 54.2% | 50.7% | 50.7% | 1399 | — |
| 7 | Slimes | 1 | 2.7% | 3 | 33.3% | 51.1% | 49.3% | 51.5% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 2.7% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 48.3% | 48.9% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 58.3% | 50.9% | 47.9% | 48.7% | 1597 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Polkhawk | 1 | 2.7% | 4 | 25.0% | 41.6% | 47.4% | 47.1% | 1543 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Astra Cleric | 4 | 10.8% | 20 | 52.5% | 44.9% | 47.4% | 46.1% | 1424 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Allies | 4 | 10.8% | 14 | 42.9% | 50.4% | 46.2% | 49.3% | 1340 | — |
| 13 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 2.7% | 6 | 41.7% | 51.4% | 45.5% | 49.7% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 5.4% | 9 | 55.6% | 51.0% | 44.6% | 48.1% | 1363 | — |
| 15 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 40.0% | 52.2% | 43.8% | 49.7% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 2.7% | 4 | 12.5% | 40.6% | 42.2% | 46.5% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Allies | 1 | 2.7% | 3 | 16.7% | 44.0% | 40.7% | 46.6% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 2.7% | 3 | 0.0% | 45.0% | 40.0% | 47.1% | 1053 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Tera Silvie | 1 | 2.7% | 5 | 0.0% | 43.5% | 40.0% | 47.6% | 945 | ↓ low |