EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 3 | 13.0% | 10 | 70.0% | 59.5% | 57.4% | 55.7% | 1340 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Luxem Zander | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 87.5% | 72.4% | 57.3% | 58.4% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 56.7% | 55.0% | 53.2% | 1303 | — |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 3 | 13.0% | 16 | 68.8% | 57.0% | 54.5% | 51.4% | 1315 | — |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 8.7% | 11 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 52.7% | 51.6% | 1265 | — |
| 6 | Fire Exia | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 43.7% | 50.0% | 45.2% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 17.4% | 15 | 46.7% | 54.0% | 49.2% | 51.4% | 1316 | — |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 54.1% | 46.0% | 50.0% | 1170 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Genbu | 3 | 13.0% | 13 | 50.0% | 52.2% | 45.5% | 46.8% | 1226 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 4.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 42.8% | 44.6% | 48.9% | 1051 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 4.3% | 5 | 30.0% | 33.1% | 42.8% | 40.0% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 4.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 18.7% | 40.0% | 37.4% | 1340 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 8.7% | 7 | 21.4% | 37.4% | 37.7% | 40.8% | 1184 | ↓ low |