← Yeti Gaming Webcam Grand Archive HVN Regionals #2
Water FractalTier 2
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Grand Archive HVN Regionals #2
decks
19
(19.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
86
35-42-9
overall winrate
45.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
48.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1368
· median 1368
· range 1083–1652
(19 pilots with an ELO rating)
1010
Q1 1234
Q3 1454
1750
26% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
16% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 17 | 6-9-2 | 41.2% | 42.9% | 43.6% | -2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 52.5% | +1.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 54.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 10 | 3-5-2 | 40.0% | 42.9% | 45.7% | -1.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 58.7% | +4.4 |
| Wind Allies | 5.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.1% | -3.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.8% | -8.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.3% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.2% | -4.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 19 from this event
The 19 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 9 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Fast Cure, Jianyu, Fate's Premonition, Captivating Opulence. Losers more often ran: Tariff Ring, Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Grand Crusader's Ring.
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Jianyu, Fate's Premonition
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Captivating Opulence
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Frostsworn Paladin
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Quicksilver Grail
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Fractal of Refreshment
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 6.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Chill to the Bone
Losing decks ran 2.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fast Cure | +0.44 | 4 | 0 | 5 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.44 | 0 | 4 | 3 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.33 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.33 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.33 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.33 | 3 | 0 | 6 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.33 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.22 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.22 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mana Resonance | -0.22 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Scepter of Fascination | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Enchantress | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 8 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.11 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cleric Robes | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Ascetic Vice | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ardent Cloudstriker | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hypothermia | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |