← Yeti Gaming Webcam Grand Archive HVN Regionals #2
Water GenbuTier 1
at Yeti Gaming Webcam Grand Archive HVN Regionals #2
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 19.8% | 17 | 9-6-2 | 58.8% | 57.1% | 56.4% | +2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 10 | 7-3-0 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 58.2% | +3.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 58.0% | +4.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.3% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 46.2% | -2.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Wind Allies | 5.2% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.1% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.0% | -2.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Guo Jia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Overlord | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 51 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 51 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Young Beastbonder | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Glacial Evocation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Conniving Plans | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Mare | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Giant Tortoise | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carpsong Coda | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clockwork Musicbox | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Limitless Slime | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swooping Talons | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bedivere, Woodland Overseer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ocean's Blessing | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |