EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 貓腳印-桃園店 店家冠軍賽.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 87.5% | 75.2% | 59.2% | 62.3% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 55.9% | 57.1% | 54.3% | 1380 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 2 | 12.5% | 8 | 62.5% | 51.8% | 55.2% | 52.5% | 1345 | — |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 3 | 18.8% | 12 | 62.5% | 56.5% | 54.0% | 52.9% | 1319 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 60.0% | 49.8% | 52.0% | 49.5% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 56.0% | 48.9% | 51.6% | 1256 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Erupting | 3 | 18.8% | 11 | 54.5% | 54.6% | 48.6% | 49.4% | 1242 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Allies | 2 | 12.5% | 9 | 44.4% | 47.8% | 46.1% | 47.4% | 1399 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 46.0% | 1277 | — |
| 10 | Fire Vanitas | 1 | 6.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 29.1% | 40.0% | 41.6% | 1053 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Water Arisanna | 1 | 6.2% | 5 | 0.0% | 26.3% | 35.7% | 38.1% | 1121 | ↓ low |