Water GenbuTier 1
at Geek Culture HVN Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.3 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 49.3% | -0.4 |
| Water Fractal | 11.2% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 51.2% | +0.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.6% | +4.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.5% | -9.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Glacial Evocation, Song of Frost, Frostbind. Losers more often ran: Revitalizing Cleanse, Fractal of Polar Depths, Rippleback Terrapin.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Swooping Talons | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waterlogged Ranger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |