Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Geek Culture HVN Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.0% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +2.2 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 63.3% | +7.1 |
| Water Fractal | 11.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 35.8% | -9.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 62.3% | +5.9 |
| Water Genbu | 8.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.3% | -9.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Rai | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diablerie | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Imperial Spy | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Galewhisper Rogue | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shadow's Claw | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |