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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at Geek Culture HVN Regionals

decks
7 (8.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
44 18-21-5
overall winrate
46.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.6% avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
49.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1401 · median 1413 · range 1254–1542 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1033 Q1 1270 Q3 1411 1702
57% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aggro 15.0% 6 4-2-0 66.7% 60.0% 54.0% +2.2
Wind Allies 12.5% 6 4-1-1 75.0% 65.0% 63.3% +7.1
Water Fractal 11.2% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 35.8% -9.1
Wind Astra Cleric 10.0% 8 5-2-1 68.8% 62.5% 62.3% +5.9
Water Genbu 8.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 38.5% -11.0
Wind Seiryuu 6.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.4% -17.0
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.0% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 37.3% -9.5
Fire Suzaku 5.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.3% -0.7
Wind Luxem Zander 3.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.8% -13.1
Water Penguin Mill 2.5% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.6% +2.7
Fire Arcane 1.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.4% +0.4
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.2% 0
Fire Crux Mage 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.6% -16.7
Fire Exia 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.2% -12.5
Fire Rai 1.2% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.0% -20.8
Water Astra Cleric 1.2% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 46.1% -3.8
Water Overlord 1.2% 0
Water Ravishing Mill 1.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.7
Wind Tera Silvie 1.2% 0
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Diablerie -1.00 0 2 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 2 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 2 0 0
Verdigris Decree +1.00 2 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 2 0
Dream Fairy +1.00 2 0 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 2 0 0
Penumbral Waltz +1.00 2 0 0
Reclaim +0.50 1 0 1
Water Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.50 1 0 0
Scout the Land -0.50 0 1 0
Veiling Breeze +0.50 1 0 1
Slimeshield +0.50 1 0 0
Slice and Dice -0.50 0 1 1
Imperial Spy -0.50 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -0.50 0 1 0
Backup Charger +0.50 1 0 1
Windmill Engineer +0.50 1 0 1
Galewhisper Rogue -0.50 0 1 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -0.50 0 1 0
Shadowstrike -0.50 0 1 1
Blinding Orb +0.50 1 0 1
Crystallized Destiny +0.50 1 0 0
Chalice of Blood -0.50 0 1 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester +0.50 1 0 1
Mastermind Scheme -0.50 0 1 1
Shadow's Claw +0.50 1 0 1
Zephyr -0.50 0 1 1
Nullifying Mirror -0.50 0 1 0
Blackmarket Broker -0.50 0 1 1
Resolute Stand -0.50 0 1 0
Staggering Strike -0.50 0 1 0
Beseech the Winds +0.50 1 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.50 0 1 0
Morgan, Soul Guide -0.50 0 1 0
Tristan, Shadowreaver +0.50 1 0 0
Aesan Protector +0.00 1 1 0
Stifling Trap +0.00 1 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +0.00 1 1 0
Quicksilver Grail +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/25113/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike