Water Ravishing MillTier 3
at Geek Culture HVN Regionals
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.4%
avg ELO -11.3 per match
expected value
41.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1172
· median 1172
· range 1172–1172
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1033
Q1 1270
Q3 1411
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 15.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.7% | -10.9 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 11.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Ravishing Mill decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
