← HVN Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at HVN Regionals @ Hobby Lords Lower Hutt.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 3 | 9.4% | 13 | 61.5% | 49.3% | 54.5% | 52.3% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Fractal | 2 | 6.2% | 9 | 72.2% | 52.7% | 54.0% | 50.5% | 1381 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Neos | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 53.2% | 53.8% | 52.4% | 1254 | — |
| 4 | Water Polkhawk | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 60.0% | 64.2% | 53.8% | 57.4% | 1285 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 6.2% | 11 | 77.3% | 68.7% | 53.8% | 55.3% | 1371 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 60.0% | 61.7% | 52.2% | 54.5% | 1279 | — |
| 7 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 44.2% | 51.4% | 49.1% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 5 | 15.6% | 24 | 54.2% | 46.5% | 50.8% | 48.6% | 1317 | — |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 3 | 9.4% | 15 | 53.3% | 53.3% | 49.9% | 50.5% | 1266 | — |
| 10 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 47.2% | 49.3% | 48.2% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 50.0% | 56.6% | 49.1% | 51.7% | 1150 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 3 | 9.4% | 15 | 53.3% | 48.3% | 48.5% | 47.7% | 1248 | — |
| 13 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 56.5% | 46.7% | 51.2% | 1331 | — |
| 14 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.6% | 46.4% | 48.8% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Suzaku | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 45.0% | 52.6% | 46.2% | 49.5% | 1233 | — |
| 16 | Fire Polkhawk | 2 | 6.2% | 9 | 33.3% | 45.9% | 44.3% | 48.0% | 1042 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Slimes | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 0.0% | 23.9% | 40.0% | 41.0% | 1013 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 0.0% | 33.1% | 40.0% | 44.5% | 921 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 20.0% | 40.8% | 40.0% | 44.0% | 1211 | — |