Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Abyssal Heaven Regionals
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-5-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.4%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
41.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1306
· range 1207–1405
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1168
Q3 1402
1558
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 24.1% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.6% | -13.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Exia | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Kongming | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Diana | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
