Fire ExiaTier 2
at Abyssal Heaven Regionals
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
3-4-1
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.8%
avg ELO -5.4 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1405
· median 1405
· range 1402–1408
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1168
Q3 1402
1558
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 24.1% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.3% | -13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Diana | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
