Water FractalTier 1
at Abyssal Heaven Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 66.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.4% | +13.0 |
| Fire Exia | 6.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 51.1% | +0.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +16.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.1% | -15.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.4 |
| Fire Kongming | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fast Cure, Quicksilver Grail, Wand of Frost. Losers more often ran: Grand Crusader's Ring, Disenchant, Song of Frost.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Extricating Touch | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Channeling Stone | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xuchang, Frozen Citadel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hairpin of Transience | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |