Water Dawn of AshesTier 2
at HVN 店家冠軍賽
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-2-1
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.5%
avg ELO -7.1 per match
expected value
41.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1300
· median 1300
· range 1300–1300
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1144
Q3 1316
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.7% | -4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Dawn of Ashes decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
