Water GenbuTier 1
at HVN 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
8-3-2
overall winrate
69.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +1.6 per match
expected value
56.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1467
· median 1467
· range 1240–1694
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1144
Q3 1316
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Neos | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.2 |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.9% | +0.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
