Water FractalTier 2
at HVN 店家冠軍賽
decks
4
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
6-8-3
overall winrate
44.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
48.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1203
· median 1205
· range 1145–1257
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1144
Q3 1316
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 16.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.6% | -0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 46.4% | -2.7 |
| Wind Neos | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.7 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 4.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.3% | +4.2 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.5% | +8.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
