← HP Wolves Den 1st Store Championships! (ALC Season)
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at HP Wolves Den 1st Store Championships! (ALC Season)
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.9% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.2% | +6.1 |
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 52.8% | +1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.7% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 30.1% | -10.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Focused Flames, Hasty Messenger, Morgan, Soul Guide. Losers more often ran: Spurn to Ash, Devastating Blow, Savage Slash.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tether in Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |