← HP Wolves Den 1st Store Championships! (ALC Season)
Water Astra ClericTier 2
at HP Wolves Den 1st Store Championships! (ALC Season)
decks
2
(7.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-7-0
overall winrate
22.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.9%
avg ELO -5.6 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1169
· median 1169
· range 1164–1173
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1111
Q1 1222
Q3 1432
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Allies | 17.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 10.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
