← HP Wolves Den 1st Store Championships! (ALC Season)
Water Luxem AssassinTier 2
at HP Wolves Den 1st Store Championships! (ALC Season)
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1668
· median 1668
· range 1668–1668
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1111
Q1 1222
Q3 1432
1668
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 21.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Allies | 17.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Water Allies | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 10.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Luxem Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
