Fire AggroTier 2
at The Gauntlet 2025
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-4-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.1%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
56.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1436
· median 1436
· range 1436–1436
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1345
Q1 1434
Q3 1600
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 42.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.4% | +18.6 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.5% | -23.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Aggro decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
