Fire ExiaTier 2
at The Gauntlet 2025
decks
1
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
0-6-1
overall winrate
7.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
23.9%
avg ELO -13.1 per match
expected value
25.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
27.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1345
· median 1345
· range 1345–1345
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1345
Q1 1434
Q3 1600
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Genbu | 42.9% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 24.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
