Water GenbuTier 2
at The Gauntlet 2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Luxem Zander | 14.3% | 17 | 1-9-7 | 26.5% | 31.0% | 24.7% | -10.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.1% | 7 | 2-1-4 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.4% | +0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 40.6% | -4.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.6% | -18.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.1% | +3.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.6% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +2.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.6% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 75.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.2% | -12.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.3% | -5.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.3% | -5.7 |
| Wind Allies | 3.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Water Genbu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 11 mirror matches (6 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Expel the Departed, Strategem of Myriad Ice, Extricating Touch. Losers more often ran: Crystallized Destiny, Blinding Orb, Mystic Purifier.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expel the Departed | +0.36 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.36 | 6 | 2 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.36 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.36 | 6 | 2 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.27 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.27 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.27 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.18 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.18 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.18 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.18 | 2 | 4 | 5 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.18 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Seeking Shot | -0.18 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.18 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.18 | 4 | 2 | 4 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 8 | |
| Resonating Fugue | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 10 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.09 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.09 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.09 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.09 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 9 | |
| Young Beastbonder | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Buried Grief | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |