EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Webcam Weekly 4/18/2024.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 5 | 10.9% | 17 | 61.8% | 50.9% | 55.3% | 50.5% | 1257 | — |
| 2 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 6 | 13.0% | 24 | 58.3% | 50.3% | 54.6% | 50.2% | 1226 | — |
| 3 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 4.3% | 8 | 62.5% | 50.9% | 53.8% | 50.3% | 1250 | — |
| 4 | Fire Neos Tonoris | 1 | 2.2% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | 49.9% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 4 | 8.7% | 14 | 64.3% | 51.4% | 53.2% | 50.4% | 1218 | — |
| 6 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 4.3% | 8 | 56.2% | 50.1% | 52.1% | 49.9% | 1503 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Lorraine | 1 | 2.2% | 4 | 62.5% | 51.1% | 51.8% | 50.5% | 1527 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Beast | 1 | 2.2% | 3 | 50.0% | 50.3% | 51.8% | 50.3% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 2.2% | 3 | 66.7% | 51.0% | 51.4% | 50.4% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Lorraine | 1 | 2.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 49.8% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 2 | 4.3% | 7 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 48.6% | 50.0% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Tera Tamer | 1 | 2.2% | 4 | 25.0% | 48.7% | 48.6% | 49.8% | 1137 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 2.2% | 4 | 37.5% | 49.5% | 48.0% | 49.9% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.2% | 3 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 47.5% | 49.4% | 1582 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Fire Aggro | 4 | 8.7% | 11 | 36.4% | 49.1% | 46.1% | 49.7% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.2% | 3 | 50.0% | 49.5% | 46.0% | 49.4% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 2.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.0% | 45.7% | 50.5% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Erupting | 4 | 8.7% | 13 | 46.2% | 48.7% | 44.8% | 49.3% | 1278 | — |
| 19 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 6 | 13.0% | 20 | 40.0% | 49.7% | 44.8% | 49.7% | 1300 | — |
| 20 | Water Tonoris | 2 | 4.3% | 6 | 16.7% | 48.9% | 44.7% | 49.8% | 1327 | — |
| 21 | Water Luxem Assassin | 1 | 2.2% | 4 | 0.0% | 48.2% | 40.0% | 49.3% | 1190 | ↓ low |