Fire ExiaTier 1
at CMB DTR Regionals
decks
2
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
11-4-1
overall winrate
71.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
69.1%
avg ELO +7.6 per match
expected value
57.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1299
· median 1299
· range 1162–1436
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1189
Q3 1369
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 31.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.4% | +6.0 |
| Fire Suited | 14.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 63.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
