Fire SuitedTier 1
at CMB DTR Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 31.7% | 11 | 6-4-1 | 59.1% | 56.7% | 48.8% | -0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.4% | -17.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.1% | -3.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.1% | -15.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 43.9% | -4.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.3% | +1.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 64.1% | +10.5 |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Water Zander | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Wind Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Rending Flames. Losers more often ran: Mortal Ambition, Blazing Throw, Fiery Interference.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ashen Riffle | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Hearts | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Suited Trickery | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Three of Spades | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Spades | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Two of Spades | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |