Fire RileTier 1
at CMB DTR Regionals
decks
13
(31.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
69
36-30-3
overall winrate
54.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.9%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1347
· median 1352
· range 1162–1576
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1189
Q3 1369
1750
46% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suited | 14.6% | 11 | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 43.3% | 51.2% | +0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 48.1% | -0.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.8% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 50.9% | +0.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.3% | -5.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.6% | -6.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.9% | -6.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.7% | +9.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.3% | +11.4 |
| Water Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.0 |
| Wind Ciel | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.4% | +13.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 13 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Tariff Ring, Smoke Bombs, Fiery Interference. Losers more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Ghosts of Pendragon, Crystallized Destiny.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Smoke Bombs
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 7.
Fiery Interference
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 3.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 4.
Dusklight Communion
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Beastbond Claws
Winning decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 13 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 10.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Ghosts of Pendragon
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Drawn Blade
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Lorraine, Blademaster
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 13 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Show all 158 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 138 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.46 | 1 | 7 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.38 | 6 | 1 | 5 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.38 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.38 | 1 | 6 | 4 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.38 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.38 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.31 | 5 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.31 | 7 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.31 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.31 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.31 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.31 | 2 | 6 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.31 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.23 | 6 | 3 | 3 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.23 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.23 | 4 | 7 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Claws | +0.23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.23 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.23 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.23 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.23 | 3 | 6 | 1 | |
| Savage Sunder | +0.23 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.23 | 3 | 6 | 4 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.23 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.23 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.23 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.23 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.23 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.23 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.15 | 5 | 7 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Jin, Zealous Maverick | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.15 | 2 | 4 | 3 | |
| Jin, Fate Defiant | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.15 | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Shuang Ji of Sacrifice | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Berserker Plate | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Jin, Undying Resolve | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.15 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Striking Illuminance | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.15 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.15 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.15 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Searing Truth | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fabled Ruby Fatestone | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 8 | |
| Under Fire | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.08 | 5 | 6 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.08 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Luxera's Map | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Luxem Sight | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lightweaver's Assault | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Blinding Steel | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dragon's Dawn | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kingdom's Divide | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incinerated Templar | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Searing Rebuke | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Malevolent Vow | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Kingslayer | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memory Thief | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fireball | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 5 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baleful Oblation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Consumption Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |