Water FractalTier 2
at CMB DTR Regionals
decks
1
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
4-2-2
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1275
· median 1275
· range 1275–1275
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1189
Q3 1369
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 31.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Fire Suited | 14.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Exia | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.8 |
| Wind Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
