Water AlliesTier 1
at DTR Regional @ CM Dunedin
decks
4
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
9-9-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.3%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1343
· median 1328
· range 1309–1408
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1182
Q3 1403
1558
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.7% | +4.3 |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 36.5% | -10.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Cats | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -2.4 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
