Water FractalTier 1
at DTR Regional @ CM Dunedin
decks
3
(9.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-6-2
overall winrate
46.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1286
· median 1226
· range 1205–1427
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1182
Q3 1403
1558
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.2 |
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.4% | -20.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Wind Cats | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
