Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at DTR Regional @ CM Dunedin
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 12.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
| Water Fractal | 9.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -5.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Water Neos | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +7.0 |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.4% | -11.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +4.0 |
| Wind Cats | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharpen Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 |