Fire RileTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/7/2025
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Suited | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.5% | +0.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.1% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +0.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.4 |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 67 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 67 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Siphoning Fractal | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Mirage's Grave | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ciel, Loyal Valet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grande Sonnerie | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ciel, Omenbringer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Profane Bindings | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Martial Guard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |