Water AetherwingTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/7/2025
decks
2
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
1-6-1
overall winrate
18.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
39.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1219
· median 1219
· range 1196–1241
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1200
Q3 1415
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 20.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -0.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
