Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/7/2025
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 20.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 10.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Fire Suited | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Condemned Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obsequious Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Confidant's Oath | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brusque Neige | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reverse Affliction | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rivulet Adjutant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sablier Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devotion's Price | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lamentation's Toll | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mire Reparation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sinistre Stab | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Extorting Blackjack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flowing Oubli | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Soutirer Vortex | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Martial Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |