Fire SuzakuTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/7/2025
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 20.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.5% | +1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.4 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | +1.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Azure Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |