Water AlliesTier 1
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 8/7/2025
decks
2
(4.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-3-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.7%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
53.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1344
· median 1344
· range 1267–1420
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1094
Q1 1200
Q3 1415
1656
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 20.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
