← Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
Water AlliesTier 1
at Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
4-4-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
50.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1278
· median 1278
· range 1191–1365
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1194
Q3 1353
1532
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Polkhawk | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Water Neos | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
