← Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
Water FractalTier 1
at Store Championship - Distorted Reflections
decks
1
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-1-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.4%
avg ELO +4.5 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1356
· median 1356
· range 1356–1356
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1194
Q3 1353
1532
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
