Fire SuitedTier 2
at GG Adelaide DTR Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 25.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.9% | -9.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.0% | +18.2 |
| Slimes | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ciel | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Suited Trickery | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Five of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Duchess, Six of Hearts | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Two of Hearts | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Straight Flare | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Five of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Peppered Chef | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Two of Spades | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ashen Riffle | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wonderland's Reign | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Raised Slash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |